2030 carbon emissions reduction target

A week is a long time in politics. Given everything that’s been happening at Holyrood it might be easy to overlook the Scottish Government’s recent announcement that the legally binding 2030 emissions reduction interim target – a 75% reduction of carbon emissions compared to the 1990 baseline – will be dropped, with new legislation giving effect to this.

Included in the announcement was a package of measures and proposals, including in transport (e.g. a new policy route map for approximately 24,000 additional EV charge points by 2030 via a mix of public and private finance, and a new national integrated ticketing system for public transport) and land use (e.g. a consultation on options for a carbon land tax on larger landholdings in summer 2024, as part of exploring regulatory and fiscal changes that could be made to further incentivise renewable energy generation).

The package also announced that the Scottish Government was:

• Considering non-domestic rates reliefs to better support climate ambitions and encourage investment in energy efficiency and zero direct emissions (or clean) heating system, working closely with the New Deal for Business.
• Seeking a four (UK) nations climate response group the remit of which would be developed but will include climate financing, the balance of reserved and devolved powers – to be presented to the UK Government and other nations for further discussion.”
• Exploring climate change legislation to enable aspects of the accelerated climate policy package, with parliament being updated in due course.”

Given the potential impacts of these proposals, the sooner more detail is available on these the better. However, it remains to be seen how and if they will be taken forward, by whom and when.

Recent reports

The announcement follows recent reports which highlighted the challenges of meeting the existing 2030 interim emissions reduction target.

The Climate Change Committee released it latest annual progress report to the Scottish Parliament on 20 March 2024. Key messages included that achievement of the 2030 target was now ‘beyond what is credible’ given the pace at which supply chains and investment would need to develop. While recognising progress, for example in renewable electricity generation and in developing (and consulting on) the Heat in Buildings Bill, the report noted that the Scottish Government should ensure sufficient incentives, advice, engagement and financial support are available to Scottish businesses to improve energy efficiency, adopt low carbon heating and electric vehicles.

On 14 March 2024, the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) published its second Fiscal Sustainability Report. This explores how climate change could affect the Scottish Government’s fiscal sustainability and considers the potential effects on Scottish public finances from damage created by climate change, the costs of taking action to meet Scotland’s statutory emissions targets to reach net-zero by 2045. It refers to Scottish Government’s third Climate Change Plan – a legal requirement to outline the policies to be implemented to reduce Scottish emissions and covering the period from 2025 to 2040 due to be published later this year (2024).

SFC recommends the Plan should set out planned policies to meet mitigation targets and the cost of each policy for both the Scottish Government and private sector, where appropriate, recognising the implications.

So, what next?

Its fair to say the current political dynamics and dividing lines around climate change and net zero policy both at Holyrood and Westminster are significant. With a UK general election likely and a Scottish one now also possible this year, that is unlikely to change. 2045 is only getting closer. Clarity and consistency in net zero policy will be critical to encouraging the range and scale of net zero investment required.

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